Researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) said in study called the Unifom California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) last week that Californians have a 7% chance of being affected by a magnitude-8 or larger earthquake within the next 30 years, an increase of 2.3% since 2008 predictions. However, the study predicts fewer earthquakes of magnitudes 6.5 to 7.5 than was previously thought, from once every 4.8 years to once every 6.3 years.

Earthquakes occur when the earth's plates shift thereby releasing pressure that is built up along fault lines. There are various types of faults including normal faults where the the inclined plate moves down. A strike-slip fault occurs when there is a horizontal shift and a thrust fault occurs when an inclined plate is pushed up.

Vibrations are then sent through the ground at different speeds. P waves, or compressional waves, move the quickest and shake the ground back and forth parallel to the direction the wave is moving. S waves, or shear waves, shake the ground back and forth perpendicular to the direction of the wave and cause the most damage. Surface waves are seismic waves trapped near the surface.

The last time a major earthquake occurred along the San Andreas Fault in California was 1690.

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