For some time now, the war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate. However, just last week, Ukraine faced a significant setback as it was compelled to retreat from the strategic town of Avdiivka following months of intense conflict, marking its most significant defeat since the fall of Bakhmut in May.

Much-needed funds from the United States are in limbo, having cleared the Senate but awaiting approval from the House. Meanwhile, the unity between the European Union (EU) and NATO is showing signs of strain, with major decisions delayed and at risk of being vetoed. While no influential Western figures advocate abandoning Kyiv, there's a growing sense of weariness as the expenses mount.

Presidential hopeful Donald Trump has not clearly stated what his Ukraine policy would be, save his claim that he could end the conflict within 24 hours. The former president’s anti-NATO rhetoric, general disdain for European institutions, and peculiar admiration for Putin are well-documented. While no one knows what another Trump presidency might materially entail, it is conceivable to envisage a worst-case scenario for Ukraine, wherein it loses ground while the new occupant of the White House decides that America has expended enough resources already.