The Starbucks Fallacybr World Affairs Council: Nor Cal - World Affairs Council of Northern Californiabr In his latest book, author James Mann examines the evolution of American policy toward China and asks, "What are our ideas and hidden assumptions about China?"In this follow-up to his best-selling book The Rise of the Vulcans, Mann explores two scenarios popular among the policy elite. The "Soothing Scenario" contends that the successful spread of capitalism will gradually bring about a development of democratic institutions, free elections, independent judiciary, and a progressive human rights policy.In the "Upheaval Scenario," the contradictions in Chinese society between rich and poor, cities and the countryside, and between the openness of the economy and the unyielding Leninist system will eventually lead to a revolution, chaos, or collapse.